OC businesses lose $59M following immigration enforcement
Summary
This news article documents the severe economic consequences of intensified federal immigration enforcement and proposed tariff policies on Orange County’s local economy, with a particular focus on small businesses. Drawing on a UC Irvine–led working paper and a countywide Economic Impact Survey of 375 business owners and executives, the article reveals that Orange County businesses lost an estimated $58.9 million in economic output over just eight weeks following May 2025 ICE raids. Researchers identified a pronounced “chilling effect,” using cell phone mobility and spending data to show 20–25% declines in consumer spending in neighborhoods with high concentrations of foreign-born residents from Latin America, alongside a $4.5 million reduction in local sales tax revenue.
A key contributor to this research is Matt Wilson, Associate Director of Economic and Workforce Development at the Great Cities Institute (GCI) at the University of Illinois Chicago, who co-authored the working paper alongside UC Irvine scholars T. William Lester and Eli Knaap. Wilson’s involvement brings a workforce and regional economic development lens to the analysis, strengthening the study’s interpretation of how policy shocks reverberate through local labor markets, small business ecosystems, and municipal revenues. His expertise helps contextualize business owner experiences—such as reduced foot traffic, declining morale, absenteeism, and closures—within broader patterns of economic precarity and policy-induced uncertainty.
The article also highlights widespread disapproval among business owners of immigration enforcement and tariff policies, with many describing current conditions as worse than the COVID-19 pandemic due to the absence of relief programs. Survey respondents emphasized fear-driven consumer behavior, disrupted workforce stability, and rising input costs, particularly in hospitality, retail, manufacturing, and professional services. Through Wilson’s collaboration with UC Irvine and local policymakers, the research underscores the interconnectedness of immigration policy, economic vitality, and community well-being, offering evidence-based insights to inform advocacy, policymaking, and targeted economic recovery strategies.