Hunkering Down: Immigration Enforcement’s Economic Cost
Executive Summary
Hunkering Down: The Hidden Economic Cost of Federal Immigration Enforcement in Cook County, IL examines how heightened federal immigration enforcement beginning in January 2025 affected travel and commercial activity across Cook County. The report finds that residents of neighborhoods with relatively high shares of Latin America–born residents substantially reduced trips to retail stores and restaurants in other parts of Cook County after enforcement intensified. These “cross-community” trips had been a routine part of the county’s economy before January 2025, connecting immigrant communities with businesses and commercial corridors throughout the region.
Using weekly origin-destination foot-traffic data, researchers found that cross-community visits to retail businesses fell by roughly 9 percent and restaurant visits by roughly 10 percent, while visits to businesses in high Latin America–born neighborhoods remained largely unchanged. The decline emerged within weeks and persisted throughout nearly a year of observation, with particularly pronounced effects on suburban retail activity.
Researchers estimate that the reduction in cross-community trips corresponded to approximately $1.26 billion in foregone retail and restaurant activity over the first year of heightened enforcement and approximately $107 million in foregone local sales-tax revenue. The study found no evidence that the missing commercial activity was offset by increased visits elsewhere in Cook County or outside the county. The findings demonstrate how changes in mobility by immigrant communities can produce economic consequences extending across Cook County’s broader commercial economy.
News Conference
The University of Illinois Chicago’s Great Cities Institute held a news conference on September 8, 2026, to release its new report, Hunkering Down: The Hidden Economic Cost of Federal Immigration Enforcement in Cook County, IL.
The news conference featured remarks from:
- Toni Preckwinkle, President, Cook County Board of Commissioners
- Matthew D. Wilson, Ph.D., Senior Associate Director, Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois Chicago; report co-author
- José Miguel Acosta-Córdova, Ph.D., Policy Manager, Illinois Legislative Latino Caucus Foundation; Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Institute for Research on Race and Public Policy, University of Illinois Chicago; report co-author
- Arne Duncan, Managing Partner, Chicago CRED
- Ricardo “Ric” Estrada, President and CEO, Metropolitan Family Services
- Rebecca Shi, CEO, American Business Immigration Coalition Action