New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids
Summary
SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
The Trump administration’s nationwide immigration crackdown is well into its second year. Federal immigration agents have arrested hundreds of thousands of people since Inauguration Day. On any given day, about 65,000 people are sitting in immigration detention. That’s a record. And about 70% of them have no criminal conviction. Now, new research quantifies how much these ICE arrest operations are costing local economies, and not just in immigrant neighborhoods. Here’s NPR’s Jasmine Garsd.
JASMINE GARSD, BYLINE: In the days after President Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, the mood in Chicago’s Latino neighborhoods was tense. Rumors were running wild that this city was going to be the first to see ICE raids. A waitress NPR spoke to back then, named Caridad, requested that we not use her last name for fear of being targeted.
CARIDAD: (Speaking Spanish).
GARSD: “I have to go grocery shopping,” she said, “but I haven’t because what if ICE is there? People are more than afraid. They’re panicking.” A new study out today shows just how big an economic impact that panic and the ICE raids that followed had. The report by the University of Illinois Chicago used anonymous GPS data from cellphones to unpack the economic toll of ICE operations in 2025 throughout Chicago. The study tracked movement between immigrant neighborhoods and nonimmigrant neighborhoods in Chicago’s Cook County. Professor Matt Wilson, a study co-author, says the usual back-and-forth between the two areas stopped almost immediately.
MATT WILSON: The flows from the high Latin American-born areas to the low Latin American-born areas collapsed after January 20.
GARSD: Wilson says it’s remarkable how strongly the economic impact was felt outside those immigrant communities. Now, the report estimates that the raids cost retail and restaurants in nonimmigrant neighborhoods in the county about $1.26 billion, and it cost the state around $107 million in tax revenue.
WILSON: We see that 9% drop in retail and 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persists for about a year. People’s behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025, and it never recovered.
GARSD: For a small business, a 10% drop over the course of a year can be a financial hit. In a statement to NPR, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, quote, “If there was any correlation between rampant illegal immigration and a good economy, Biden would have had a booming economy. Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers.” Wilson, the researcher, says the report underscores that no community is an island.
WILSON: I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they’re insular and they’re isolated. But it’s really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy and they’re making trips to faraway places in the county routinely.
GARSD: Several other studies have confirmed that ICE raids have sent economic shock waves throughout local economies in and well beyond immigrant neighborhoods. Jasmine Garsd, NPR News, New York.
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